Community venue exposure risk estimator for the COVID-19 pandemic.

Complexities of virus genotypes and the stochastic contacts in human society create a big challenge for estimating the potential risks of exposure to a widely spreading virus such as COVID-19. To increase public awareness of exposure risks in daily activities, we propose a birthday-paradox-based probability model to implement in a web-based system, named COSRE (community social risk estimator) and make in-time community exposure risk estimation during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. We define exposure risk to mean the probability of people meeting potential cases in public places such as grocery stores, gyms, libraries, restaurants, coffee shops, offices, etc. Our model has three inputs: the real-time number of active and asymptomatic cases, the population in local communities, and the customer counts in the room. With COSRE, possible impacts of the pandemic can be explored through spatiotemporal analysis, e.g., a variable number of people may be projected into public places through time to assess changes of risk as the pandemic unfolds. The system has potential to advance understanding of the true exposure risks in various communities. It introduces an objective element to plan, prepare and respond during a pandemic. Spatial analysis tools are used to draw county-level exposure risks of the United States from April 1 to July 15, 2020. The correlation experiment with the new cases in the next two weeks shows that the risk estimation model offers promise in assisting people to be more precise about their personal safety and control of daily routine and social interaction. It can inform business and municipal COVID-19 policy to accelerate recovery.

Remote sensing observation of annual dust cycles and possible causality of Kawasaki disease outbreaks in Japan.

Kawasaki disease (KD) is a rare vascular disease that, if left untreated, can result in irreparable cardiac damage in children. While the symptoms of KD are well-known, as are best practices for treatment, the etiology of the disease and the factors contributing to KD outbreaks remain puzzling to both medical practitioners and scientists alike. Recently, a fungus known as Candida, originating in the farmlands of China, has been blamed for outbreaks in China and Japan, with the hypothesis that it can be transported over long ranges via different wind mechanisms. This paper provides evidence to understand the transport mechanisms of dust at different geographic locations and the cause of the annual spike of KD in Japan. Candida is carried along with many other dusts, particles or aerosols, of various sizes in major seasonal wind currents. The evidence is based upon particle categorization using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD), Fine Mode Fraction (FMF) and Ångström Exponent (AE), the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) attenuated backscatter and aerosol subtype, and the Aerosol Robotic Network's (AERONET) derived volume concentration. We found that seasonality associated with aerosol size distribution at different geographic locations plays a role in identifying dominant abundance at each location. Knowing the typical size of the Candida fungus, and analyzing aerosol characteristics using AERONET data reveals possible particle transport association with KD events at different locations. Thus, understanding transport mechanisms and accurate identification of aerosol sources is important in order to understand possible triggers to outbreaks of KD. This work provides future opportunities to leverage machine learning, including state-of-the-art deep architectures, to build predictive models of KD outbreaks, with the ultimate goal of early forecasting and intervention within a nascent global health early-warning system.